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A Global Risk Warning for Nigeria’s Housing Market
Jan 27, 2026
The central message from the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 is very clear: the global economy has entered what it calls an “age of competition,” where geopolitical rivalry, economic volatility, social strain and technological disruption increasingly overlap.
Across its surveys of more than 1,300 global experts and over 11,000 business leaders worldwide, the Forum finds pessimism rising sharply in the near term, with half of respondents expecting a turbulent or stormy global outlook over the next two years.
In the Forum’s national-risk rankings, business leaders identify five dominant threats in Nigeria:
Lack of economic opportunity or unemployment, Insufficient public infrastructure and social protections, Economic downturn, Inequality, Crime and illicit economic activity
These are precisely the type of pressures that reshape neighbourhoods, redirect real-estate capital, and redefine how households choose where and how to live.
Last Time the Market Was This Expensive, Investors Waited 14 Years to Break Even
In 1999, the S&P 500 peaked. Then it took 14 years to gradually recover by 2013.
Today? Goldman Sachs sounds crazy forecasting 3% returns for 2024 to 2034.
But we’re currently seeing the highest price for the S&P 500 compared to earnings since the dot-com boom.
So, maybe that’s why they’re not alone; Vanguard projects about 5%.
In fact, now just about everything seems priced near all time highs. Equities, gold, crypto, etc.
But billionaires have long diversified a slice of their portfolios with one asset class that is poised to rebound.
It’s post war and contemporary art.
Sounds crazy, but over 70,000 investors have followed suit since 2019—with Masterworks.
You can invest in shares of artworks featuring Banksy, Basquiat, Picasso, and more.
24 exits later, results speak for themselves: net annualized returns like 14.6%, 17.6%, and 17.8%.*
My subscribers can skip the waitlist.
*Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Important Reg A disclosures: masterworks.com/cd.
Financial analysts have raised concerns that the Federal Government’s ₦20.12 trillion budget deficit for the 2026 fiscal year could severely limit credit availability for the private sector. As the government increases domestic borrowing to fund this shortfall, there is a heightened risk of a "crowding out" effect, where banks prioritise lending to the public sector over private enterprises.
The 2026 budget, which anticipates a significant gap between projected revenues and planned expenditures, relies heavily on debt instruments to remain viable. According to data from the Budget Office of the Federation, this fiscal trajectory necessitates substantial interventions from the domestic debt market, potentially driving up interest rates and reducing the volume of loanable funds available to businesses and individuals.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has officially granted national licences to several prominent financial technology (fintech) firms, including OPay and Moniepoint. This regulatory milestone transitions these entities from their previous operational tiers to a more robust national framework, enabling them to offer a broader range of financial services across the federation. The move coincides with the apex bank’s intensified efforts to tighten oversight and ensure the stability of Nigeria’s rapidly expanding digital banking ecosystem.
By elevating these firms to national licence status, the CBN aims to integrate neobanks more deeply into the formal financial system. This transition requires these organisations to adhere to higher capital requirements, more stringent reporting standards, and enhanced consumer protection protocols.
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A significant shift in Nigeria’s energy economics has occurred as the cost of solar power falls below the price of electricity from the national grid for the first time. Recent data from Financial Derivatives Company Ltd indicate that while grid electricity tariffs have surged to between ₦220 and ₦270 per kilowatt hour, solar and wind installations are now generating power at a significantly lower range of ₦85 to ₦140 per kilowatt hour.
